Saharan dust travels vast distances towards the Atlantic Ocean, delivering metal-rich micro-nutrients to marine and soil ecosystems through deposition processes. These nutrients influence ocean biogeochemistry and soil health, but their impact depends on the dust’s mineralogical and chemical composition. However, uncertainties in quantifying dust deposition—especially over the Atlantic, where deposition is high—limit our understanding of its role in processes like the iron-carbon cycle, with potential implications for global climate. Existing atmospheric and oceanic models often underestimate coarse dust particles and assume static mineral compositions, overlooking the episodic nature of dust events. PANORAMA addresses these gaps by enhancing the representation of dust size and mineralogy in Earth System Models (ESMs), with the aim of improving European climate and ocean monitoring services. The pilot will integrate advanced aerosol products and a data assimilation system tailored to dust events into a model optimized for large dust particles. This will allow assessment of how improved emission estimates affect atmospheric dust loads and deposition patterns over land and ocean.

Volcanic eruptions and wildfires pose serious risks to public health, aviation safety, and economic stability. Volcanic ash can disrupt air traffic, while wildfire smoke degrades air quality and contributes to respiratory issues. These threats are intensifying with climate change, which is increasing the frequency and severity of wildfires—especially in the Mediterranean, a recognized climate change hotspot. Accurate and timely forecasting of atmospheric composition is therefore critical to protecting both public health and infrastructure. PANORAMA introduces a fast, data-driven plume transport application that leverages satellite observations to provide real-time, short-term forecasts as soon as new data become available. Combined with an emission inversion technique, this approach aims to support rapid response to sudden events and deliver timely, actionable insights to stakeholders and decision-makers.

Aerosol climate data records are essential for understanding climate trends. Recent research highlights the role of aerosol reductions in Europe as a significant climate driver—potentially even exceeding the influence of greenhouse gases in some regions. Current aerosol data in climate data records mainly come from polar-orbiting (LEO) satellites, which offer good spatial resolution but poor temporal coverage. Geostationary (GEO) satellites provide frequent observations but lower accuracy. PANORAMA bridges these gaps by combining data from both LEO and GEO sensors and integrating observations across multiple wavelengths as well as polarimetric measurements. This synergistic approach will generate new aerosol datasets with improved accuracy and continuity enhancing the long-term aerosol records.

As global temperatures rise, the hydrological cycle is intensifying, leading to more frequent and severe extreme precipitation events and associated flooding. In the Eastern Mediterranean—a hotspot for convective storms and Mediterranean hurricanes—forecasting these events remains challenging. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models often struggle to accurately predict storm intensity and tracks due to limited resolution and incomplete representation of complex physical processes, such as aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions (ARI/ACI), which influence storm development. To address these limitations, PANORAMA builds on an existing lightning assimilation technique (LTA) that enhances NWP models by activating deep convection in areas with observed lightning, alongside improved cloud and aerosol properties. This refined assimilation will better represent convective cloud dynamics and improve precipitation forecasting. Additionally, the integration of real-time lightning and aerosol data will allow for a more accurate simulation of high-impact weather systems. This pilot is expected to enhance early warning capabilities in regions vulnerable to convective storms, like the Eastern Mediterranean, supporting faster and more reliable emergency response.

As climate change increases the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, the need for flood forecasting becomes more urgent. The devastating impact of Cyclone Daniel (September 2023) in the Karditsa region of Greece, which resulted in human casualties and widespread damage, highlighted the urgent need for flood forecasting systems that can handle extreme weather events with high accuracy. PANORAMA Pilot 5 builds on exiting methodologies and responds to this need by developing a pre-operational flood forecasting service which will be demonstrated specifically for the Daniel 2023 event in Karditsa. The service integrates enhanced precipitation forecasts from the PANORAMA NWP framework (Pilot 4) with EO-derived soil moisture and land cover data from Copernicus and PANORAMA applications and flood modelling. It uses pre-run hydrologic and hydraulic simulations to generate a library of flood scenarios, which are dynamically matched with real-time forecasts to predict flood extent and depth for the following two days. The hydrologic and hydraulic models will be calibrated using the Daniel 2023 event and will be used to evaluate the added value of PANORAMA NWP outputs over traditional forecasts. This fusion of cutting-edge NWP, EO data and advanced modelling enables more accurate, actionable forecasts that support early warnings, infrastructure protection, and emergency response in flood-prone areas—helping authorities improve preparedness and align with the goals of the EU Floods Directive.

Solar energy production is highly sensitive to atmospheric conditions, particularly the presence of aerosols and clouds. Accurate forecasting of these factors is essential for integrating solar energy into national grids efficiently and reliably. This pilot builds on an existing solar forecasting system by incorporating its improved aerosol products—especially relevant in arid and dust-prone regions. These new data inputs will refine short- and long-term solar energy forecasts, with particular emphasis on areas affected by Saharan dust transport. The pilot highlights how better atmospheric monitoring directly supports EU renewable energy targets by optimizing solar power integration and reducing market uncertainty.